Climate scenarios

The climate plays an important role in the Netherlands, as a delta country. Knowledge about our climate of the future is of vital importance to ensure the accessibility, liveability, and safety of the Netherlands. We are setting up adaptation projects to accommodate the impact of climate change as best as we can. This requires major investments, for which looking far ahead is essential. The KNMI [Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute] climate scenarios provide insight into the future climate of the Netherlands.

The KNMI climate scenarios indicate which future climate changes will be plausible in the Netherlands. The most recent scenarios, the KNMI'14 climate scenarios, paint a picture of higher temperatures, a more rapidly rising sea level, wetter winters, more severe downpours, and the probability of drier summers.

The KNMI'14 climate scenarios are based on the latest scientific insights and constitute an update of the previous KNMI’06 scenarios. The KNMI'14 scenarios also contain new and more detailed information. For example, they show future weather conditions and provide information on fog, radiation, evaporation, and hail.

The KNMI expects to publish a set of new KNMI climate scenarios in 2021, which will translate the insights from the sixth IPCC assessment rapport (AR6) to the Dutch situation.

Are you interested in keeping up to date about the development process of the new climate scenarios? Then subscribe to the digital newsletter (frequency: approx. twice a year) by sending an email to

Go to the climate scenarios